Quick Answer
The binomial formula is P(X = k) = C(n, k) × p^k × (1 − p)^(n − k). For 10 coin flips, the chance of exactly 6 heads is 0.205078, about 20.5%. The chance of 6 or fewer heads is 0.828125.
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Table of Contents
- Binomial Distribution Calculator
- Quick Answer
- Related Calculators
- How This Binomial Distribution Calculator Works
- How to Use the Binomial Distribution Calculator
- Core Formulas
- Key Terms
- Worked Example
- Real-Life Examples
- Binomial vs Normal Distribution
- Coin Flips: 10 Trials, p = 0.5
- When to Use the Binomial Distribution
- Common Mistakes to Avoid
- Frequently Asked Questions
- References & Sources
How This Binomial Distribution Calculator Works
Enter how many times you repeat a trial (n), the chance of success each time (p), and the number of successes you care about (k). The calculator works out every probability from 0 to n successes, then shows the chance of exactly k, at most k, fewer than k, at least k and more than k. It also gives the mean, standard deviation and a table of the distribution.
Quick explanation: a binomial experiment has a fixed number of independent yes-or-no trials with the same chance of success.
- n: number of trials.
- p: chance of success on one trial.
- k: number of successes.
How to Use the Binomial Distribution Calculator
- Enter the number of trials, n.
- Enter the probability of success on each trial, p, as a decimal.
- Enter the number of successes, k.
- Press Calculate.
- Read the exact and cumulative probabilities, and scan the table.
Core Formulas
- Exactly k: P(X = k) = C(n, k) × p^k × (1 − p)^(n − k)
- Combinations: C(n, k) = n! ÷ (k!(n − k)!)
- At most k: P(X ≤ k) = sum of P(X = i) for i = 0 to k
- Mean: np, and standard deviation: √(np(1 − p))
Key Terms
- Trial: one repetition of the experiment, such as one coin flip.
- Success: the outcome you are counting, such as heads.
- Probability mass function: the chance of each exact number of successes.
- Cumulative probability: the chance of k or fewer successes.
- Expected value: the long-run average number of successes, np.
Worked Example
You roll a die 5 times. What is the chance of exactly two sixes?
- n = 5, p = 1/6, k = 2
- C(5, 2) = 10, so P = 10 × (1/6)² × (5/6)³
- P = 0.160751, about 16.1%
Real-Life Examples
- Quality control: if 2% of parts are faulty, the chance of no faulty parts in a box of 50 is 0.3642.
- Free throws: a 75% shooter making at least 8 of 10 has a chance of 0.5256.
- Surveys: if 60% of people agree, the chance that exactly 12 of 20 agree is 0.1797.
- Multiple choice: guessing 10 questions with 4 options each, the chance of 5 or more right is 0.0781.
Binomial vs Normal Distribution
- Binomial: counts successes in a fixed number of trials. Values are whole numbers.
- Normal: a smooth bell curve for continuous values.
- Link: for large n, the binomial looks like a normal curve with mean np and standard deviation √(np(1 − p)).
Coin Flips: 10 Trials, p = 0.5
| Heads (k) | P(X = k) | P(X ≤ k) |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.0010 | 0.0010 |
| 1 | 0.0098 | 0.0107 |
| 2 | 0.0439 | 0.0547 |
| 3 | 0.1172 | 0.1719 |
| 4 | 0.2051 | 0.3770 |
| 5 | 0.2461 | 0.6230 |
| 6 | 0.2051 | 0.8281 |
| 7 | 0.1172 | 0.9453 |
| 8 | 0.0439 | 0.9893 |
| 9 | 0.0098 | 0.9990 |
| 10 | 0.0010 | 1.0000 |
When to Use the Binomial Distribution
- Fixed trials: the number of trials is set in advance.
- Two outcomes: each trial is a success or a failure.
- Same chance: p stays the same for every trial.
- Independent: one trial does not affect another.
Common Mistakes to Avoid
- Entering p as a percent. Enter 0.25, not 25.
- Mixing up at least and at most. At least k includes k and everything above it.
- Using it when p changes. Drawing without replacement from a small group needs another model.
- Forgetting independence. Trials must not affect each other.
- Rounding probabilities too early. Small values add up.
Frequently Asked Questions
Use P(X = k) = C(n, k) × p^k × (1 − p)^(n − k), or enter n, p and k here.
Add the probabilities for k through n, or compute 1 − P(X ≤ k − 1).
np. For 20 trials with p = 0.3, the mean is 6.
√(np(1 − p)).
A common rule is when np and n(1 − p) are both at least about 10.
Yes. Then the outcome is certain: always 0 successes or always n.
The number of ways to choose k successes from n trials. Our Combination Calculator explains it.
Only when p = 0.5. Otherwise it leans to one side.
Binomial has a fixed number of trials. Poisson counts events in a time or space with no fixed limit.
Very small probabilities are shown like 1.234e-8 so they are not rounded to zero.
Up to 10,000.
It is 1 minus the chance of zero successes: 1 − (1 − p)^n. For 10 tries with p = 0.1, that is about 0.65, or 65%.
A binomial test uses these probabilities to judge whether an observed count is unusual.
References & Sources
| Source | Used For | Link |
|---|---|---|
| Wikipedia, Binomial distribution | Formula, mean, variance and properties. | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_distribution |
| NIST/SEMATECH e-Handbook, Binomial Distribution | Definition and uses. | https://www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/eda/section3/eda366i.htm |